BEN SURGES – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Dr. Ben Carson surging into the lead nationally in the Republican race.  Is this because of his own popularity, Donald Trump's unpopularity, or both?  From NBC: 

Ben Carson has surged into the lead of the Republican presidential race, getting support from 29 percent of GOP primary voters, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

That's the highest percentage any GOP candidate has obtained so far in the survey.

Carson's 29 percent is followed by Donald Trump at 23 percent, Marco Rubio at 11 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 8 percent. These findings are similar to a New York Times/CBS poll released last week, which also showed Carson in first place in the national GOP contest.

If past polling has been about Trump leading the GOP field, "then this survey is about Dr. Ben Carson, who is currently the man to beat for the Republicans," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang, whose firm Hart Research Associates conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Oct. 25-29, so before and after last week's third Republican presidential debate hosted by CNBC.

COMMENT:  Also of substantial note is the gradual emergence of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as real contenders.  True, they're both well behind Carson and Trump, but they're starting to distance themselves from the pack.  The current "serious" contenders, in my view, are Carson, Trump, Rubio and Cruz.  Jeb Bush is fading, and Carly Fiorina, the best debater in the group, has fallen back. 

It's still early.  But there already are signs that Trump has peaked.  Next debate is next week, November 10th, from Milwaukee, hosted by Fox Business News.

November 3,  2015